Banco Odds of Winning at Loto-Québec, Wager by Wager

Loto-Québec publishes a single payoff rate for Banco: 50%. Your odds of winning at Banco change a lot with how many numbers you play, though, and so does the share of each dollar the game pays back. Worked out wager by wager from the prizes Loto-Québec publishes, the payback runs from 42 to 55 cents on the dollar.

Every figure comes from Loto-Québec’s own documents, and the math is explained under the first table.

What are the odds of winning at Banco?

At Banco, your odds depend on the type of wager, meaning how many numbers you play, from 2 to 10. If you play 2 numbers, a selection wins a prize 1 time in 13. If you play 4, it’s only 1 time in 189. The grand prize, $200,000 for a $1 bet on 10 numbers, is a 1 in 2,147,181 chance.

Every day, Loto-Québec draws 20 numbers from 1 to 70. You pick 2 to 10 of your own, and you win based on how many of yours are among the 20. A selection costs $1, $2, $5 or $10, and wagers close at 10:30 p.m. The game has been around since September 1989.

Prizes for a $1 wager, from Loto-Québec’s prize structure and odds of winning (opens in a new tab). The last two columns are our calculations.

Loto-Québec publishes the odds for each prize category, but only one payoff rate for the whole game. For each wager, we worked out the exact odds of each category from the draw of 20 numbers out of 70, multiplied every prize by those odds and added them up. Our rounded odds match every figure Loto-Québec publishes, and the same calculation applied to Banco spécial gives 50.17%, the exact rate Loto-Québec lists for that game.

Playing 2 numbers wins most often, playing 5 pays back the least

A 2-number wager wins a prize more often than any other, and it also pays back the most, 55 cents on the dollar. A 5-number wager pays back the least, 42 cents, and Loto-Québec keeps the other 58. Wagers on 2, 3 or 4 numbers have only one prize, and you need to match all your numbers to get it. From 5 numbers up, you can still win while missing one or more.

On a 10-number wager, matching none pays $2

The 10-number wager has a prize the others don’t. If none of your 10 numbers come up, you win $2, and that happens 1 time in 39. That $2 prize and the $5 for matching 6 of 10 mean a 10-number wager wins something 1 time in 19, more often than any other wager except 2 numbers. Those wins are almost always small, though. Over 90% of wins on a 10-number wager are $2 or $5, and nearly half come from a selection that matched nothing.

Is there a best combination at Banco?

Not for the numbers. Every combination has exactly the same odds of coming up. On its Wise Play (opens in a new tab) site, Loto-Québec says you can’t predict the result of a game by looking at previous outcomes. At Banco, the only choices that change anything are the type of wager and the Turbo option.

Frequency statistics don’t predict anything

Loto-Québec does publish how often each number has come up (opens in a new tab), and several sites turn that into lists of “hot” and “cold” numbers. They’re past results. The 20 numbers are drawn again from all 70 every day, so a number that came up a lot this month is no more likely to come up in the next draw. Wise Play calls this the independence of events.

At Banco, a popular combination pays the same as any other

At Lotto Max, the jackpot is shared among everyone who wins it, so a popular combination, like a set of birthdays, pays less when it comes up. At Banco, each prize is a fixed amount per dollar bet. If 50 people play the same 7 numbers for $1 and all 7 come up, each one gets $5,000. The only cap is $10,000,000 in prizes per category per draw, and above that, amounts are reduced proportionally.

Picking your own numbers still feels like having a bit of control over a random draw, a bias researchers call the illusion of control.

Is the Turbo option worth it?

The Turbo doubles the price of your selection. In exchange, an extra draw sets a multiplier, from 1 to 10, that applies to all your prizes in that draw. Based on the odds Loto-Québec publishes, that multiplier averages 2.35. So the game pays back a bit more per dollar with the Turbo, but on average, you lose more dollars every draw.

Odds from Loto-Québec’s Turbo option sheet (opens in a new tab).

What the Turbo costs, in dollars

Take a $1 selection at the 50% rate Loto-Québec publishes. Without the Turbo, you get back 50 cents on average, so you lose 50 cents. With the Turbo, you pay $2 and get back $1.18 on average, so you lose 82 cents. The payback goes from about 50% to 59%, and the average loss goes up by 32 cents a draw.

About one time in four, the multiplier is 1, which means you paid double for the same prizes. The Turbo is available on every wager except a $10 wager on 10 numbers. Since it multiplies every prize by the same factor, it raises the payoff rate of every wager by the same proportion. A 2-number wager goes from 55% to 65%, and a 5-number wager from 42% to 49%.

What are the odds of winning at Banco spécial?

Banco spécial is played with 20 numbers out of 70 and costs $5. Your numbers are checked against the same 20 numbers drawn for Banco. A selection wins a prize about 1 time in 4 (1 in 4.12). The $1,000,000 grand prize is a 1 in 4,763,044 chance, and Loto-Québec publishes a payoff rate of 50.17%.

Prizes for a $5 selection, from the Banco spécial prize structure (opens in a new tab). The 4-to-7 row is our calculation.

Matching 4 to 7 of your 20 numbers pays nothing, and that’s what happens about 3 times in 4. The prizes are at both ends, so you need to match a lot of numbers, or very few. Matching none of your 20 numbers pays $500, the same as matching 12.

Most wins just give you your money back. Matching 8 numbers (1 in 11) or 3 numbers (1 in 14) returns your $5, and those two prizes make up about two winning selections in three. The Turbo works the same way as at Banco, with the same multipliers.

A draw every week that costs nothing

A $1 Banco every night adds up to $365 a year. At a 50% payoff rate, about $180 of that stays with Loto-Québec, on average. If it’s your little end-of-day treat, there’s nothing wrong with that. For a win that changes anything, though, the odds are slim.

Lodavo gives you a weekly draw with no wager. What you save gets you free tickets for a cash draw with a $10,000 grand prize, and the bigger your balance, the more chances you get. At least $100 goes to a user every week. Nothing leaves your account to take part, so a week without a win costs you nothing.

Download Lodavo free on the Apple App Store (opens in a new tab) or Google Play Store (opens in a new tab).

Terms and conditions apply. No purchase necessary (alternate method of entry available). Skill-testing question required. Open to legal residents of Canada who are the age of majority. Odds depend on the number of eligible entries received. Full rules and odds at our contest rules.